Who will win American Idol 2011? I think I have the answer to that thanks to my good friend and hated enemy Google.
Looking at Google Trends, and comparing between past 3 months vs past 30 days, I think I have foreseen the future. At the time of writing the top 3 have not been announced so I think it’s fair to say that if I’m right, I did not cheat.
To add in a wild card, I included Casey Abrams, the talented but unpredictably unpredictable idol. Although he’s out it’s interesting to see his trends alongside the rest.
For the past 5 months the early favorite was Lauren Alaina and Scotty McCreery. Then Casey Abrams and James Durbin started to gain popularity. Casey Abrams was the most popular idol at one time, but he’s probably too unpredictable for people to waste their votes on.
Although as you can see, he’s still being search a lot. Even at yesterday’s Idol the camera was constantly on him when it wasn’t on the Top 4.
James Durbin has been rising steadily in popularity, which is quite expected since he has the strongest voice among all. But the person I like, and the one I think will eventually win American Idol, is poised to overtake him in terms of Google searches.
Let see how this looks like in the past 30 days, excluding searches from the past 24 hours which would have resulted from today’s Idol:
You can see a clear spike in searches after each Idol show. Tomorrow you will probably see another spike after today’s Idol but I don’t have to see it to make my prediction. Haley Reinhart got searched a lot after her awesome version of House of The Rising Sun last week. I blew me away and I think she’s got the best, most unique voice among all the Top 4.
The next few weeks can see a lot of changes, but I’ll be extremely busy (with a secret project) so I’ll just go ahead and made my prediction right now.
Here it is:
#4 – Lauren Alaina
#3 – Scotty McCreery
#2 – James Durbin
#1 – Haley Reinhart
Yup, that’s what i say. Haley Reinhart is peaking at the right moment while everyone else is plateauing or just getting boring.
Lauren Alaina will be forgotten by before the next American Idol. Scotty is just getting tons of votes from teenage girls who dig him for his sports fame and his good looks but ultimately, there just isn’t enough of them after you take away Justin Bieber’s share. James Durbin is a slightly lesser version of Adam Lambert.
Haley on the other hand has received much lesser publicity than everyone else, and is still looking good for the top 3. That’s why I think she will win this.
How can you argue with talent like this:



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